The marketing strategist of a consumer-goods company may want to determine if any of these trends has any relevance for the company. To do so, the strate- gist may undertake trend-impact analysis. Trend-impact analysis requires the formation of a delphi panel to determine the desirability (0-1), technical feasibility (0-1), probability of occurrence (0-1), and probable time of occurrence (2000, 2005, and beyond 2005) of each event listed. The panel may also be asked to suggest the area(s) that may be affected by each event (i.e., produc- tion, labor, markets [household, business, government, export], finance, or research and development). Information about an event may be studied by managers in areas that, accord- ing to the delphi panel, are likely to be affected by the event. If their consensus is that the event is indeed important, scanning may continue Next, cross-impact analysis may be undertaken. This type of analysis studies the impact of an event on other events. Where events are mutually exclusive, such analysis may not be necessary. But where an event seems to reinforce or inhibit other events, cross-impact analysis is highly desirable for uncovering the true strength of an event. Cross-impact analysis amounts to studying the impact of an event (given its probability of occurrence) upon other events. The impact may be delineated either in qualitative terms (such as critical, major, significant, slight, or none) or in quantitative terms in the form of probabilities.
Corporations organize scanning activity in three different ways: (a) line managers undertake environmental scanning in addition to their other work; (b) scanning is made a part of the strategic planner ’s job; (c) scanning responsibility is instituted in a new office of environmental scanning. Structuring Most companies use a combination of the first two types of arrangements. The Responsibility strategic planner may scan the corporate-wide environment while line managers for Scanning concentrate on the product/market environment. In some companies, a new office of environmental scanning has been established with a responsibility for all types of scanning. The scanning office undertakes scanning both regularly and on an ad hoc basis (at the request of one of the groups in the company). Information scanned on a regular basis is passed on to all in the organization for whom it may have relevance. For example, General Electric is organized into sectors, groups, and SBUs. The SBU is the level at which product/market planning takes place. Thus, scanned information is channeled to those SBUs, groups, and sectors for which it has relevance. Ad hoc scanning may be undertaken at the request of one or more SBUs. These SBUs then share the cost of scanning and are the principal recipients of the information.